The preview and forecast returned this week, with four seats up for grabs and two defences apiece for Labour and the Tories. The red and blue halves of the Uniparty managed a hold each, but also lost a seat each to Reform. It was an impressive hold for Labour in Manchester, who surged back into pole position in a ward in which they were heavily defeated by the Greens on May 7. It was bad news for Zack's crazy gang and will be of particular concern to local Green MP Hannah Spencer. It was a rough day all round for the Greens, who scored two wooden spoons elsewhere.
A large swing from Labour to Reform near Dennis Skinner's old hunting ground was enough to unseat Labour at the first time of asking, while they did the same to the Tories in Somerset, leaving them trailing way behind in third place. It seems that the Channel 4 exposé did not have quite the impact the broadcaster intended.
Burnage, Manchester City Council
Lab: 1,365 (42.1%) +12.8%
Grn: 1,037 (32.0%) -13.8%
WPB: 466 (14.4%) +12.2%
Ref: 315 (9.7%) -7.3%
LDm: 31 (1.0%) -2.1%
Con: 27 (0.8%) -1.4%
Lab HOLD
Triggered by the election of the Labour incumbent (Bev Craig) to the post of Mayor of Greater Manchester. This ward in the south of the city has historically elected Labour councillors, but the Greens surged way ahead of Labour here in May. This was no great surprise, as the ward has a very large Muslim population. All the parties selected Asian candidates, with the exception of Labour and Reform. Labour's decision did nothing to dissuade sectarian voters, who appear to have dispensed with the Green Party now their stance on Alphabet People is more widely known. There was no independent candidate this time around.
Karl - Grn GAIN ✘
Rich - Grn GAIN ✘
Eckington South & Renishaw, North East Derbyshire District Council
Ref: 426 (40.2%) New
Lab: 298 (28.1%) -31.9%
Con: 229 (21.6%) -12.7%
Ind: 55 (5.2%) New
Grn: 52 (4.9%) New
Ref GAIN from Lab
Triggered by the resignation of the Labour incumbent, who had served as the councillor for this rural ward since 2023. He had become increasingly estranged from his party and had openly criticised the leadership, including several damning appearances on GB News. It is not clear what ultimately sparked his decision to stand down, but it came soon after Andy Burnham's coronation. It appears he had little confidence in his new leader. North Derbyshire is traditional Red Wall territory, but Labour's control of the council was hanging by a thread and their defeat to Reform on Thursday saw the council tip into no overall control. The Lib Dems did not stand this time.
Karl - Ref GAIN ✔
Rich - Ref GAIN ✔
Hutton & Locking, North Somerset Council
Ref: 706 (38.5%) New
LDm: 612 (33.3%) +16.2%
Con: 281 (15.3%) -16.6%
Lab: 133 (7.2%) -7.1%
Grn: 104 (5.7%) New
Ref GAIN from Con
Triggered by the death of the 80-year-old Tory incumbent. The two seats in this mostly rural ward to the south and east of Weston-super-Mare have been evenly split between a Tory and an independent at the last two elections. There was no independent this time around, with Reform and the Lib Dems appearing to benefit from the absence as the Tories were pushed into distant third. North Somerset is currently run by a 'progressive alliance' of Labour, Lib Dems, Greens and independents. As a result of Thursday's by-election there are now two Reform councillors here.
Karl - Con HOLD ✘
Rich - Grn GAIN ✘
Haverhill West, West Suffolk Council
Con: 530 (51.3%) +16.5%
Ref: 267 (25.8%) New
Lab: 146 (14.1%) -23.4%
Grn: 60 (5.8%) New
LDm: 30 (2.9%) New
Con HOLD
Triggered by the resignation of the Tory incumbent. She cited health concerns for her departure, stemming from social media abuse and a formal complaint that had been lodged against her by a fellow unnamed councillor. West Suffolk is a fairly new local authority, having been founded in 2019. Like North Somerset above, it is currently run by a 'progressive alliance'. Labour is the largest party in the coalition with 15 seats, while there are 16 independents, two Greens and one Lib Dem. The two seats in this suburban ward were split between Labour and the Conservatives at the most recent election in 2023, with the incumbent Tory denying Labour from winning both seats by a slender margin of just eight votes. There was no contest this time, with Labour slumping to third place as the Tories delivered a routine hold. There was no indepenedent candidate this time.
Karl - Ref GAIN ✘
Rich - Lab GAIN ✘
Richey led Karl by six points going into this week's round and that hasn't changed after this very poor round for both of them!
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