COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 06.08.26

This week we had three Conservative defences and one each for Plaid and Reform.  The head-to-head returned after a two week absence, with a 100 per cent accuracy rate for Karl.

It was an excellent polling day for Reform, who finished either top or second in all five wards.  This included two gains from the Conservatives in Norfolk and a hold on Tyneside.  It was not so great for Labour, whose best finish was a second place in that Tyneside contest.  Elsewhere, they collected no less than three wooden spoons and a double digit drop in vote share across four wards.  This was Labour's worst weekly performance since Starmer announced his resignation.

Hengoed, Caerphilly County Borough Council

Pld: 509 (49.9%) -4.9%

Ref: 371 (36.4%) New

Lab: 103 (10.1%) -35.1%

Con: 21 (2.1%) New

LDm: 16 (1.6%) New

Pld HOLD

Triggered by the election of the Plaid incumbent to the Senedd on May 7.  All the other by-elections triggered in this way came and went weeks ago, which begs the question as to why it took Labour-run Caerphilly almost three months to hold the last remaining one.  The Hengoed ward is sandwiched between Plaid territory to the west and Labour territory to the east.  It was last contested in 2022, when it was a simple head-to-head between Plaid and Labour.  Reform's entrance in this by-election demolished the Labour vote, with a huge swing pushing Labour into third place.  However, it was not enough to dislodge Plaid.

Karl - Pld HOLD ✔

Rich - Pld HOLD ✔

Heacham, King's Lynn and West Norfolk Borough Council

Ref: 289 (37.8%) New

LDm: 219 (28.7%) New

Con: 163 (21.3%) -3.8%

Lab: 93 (12.2%) -11.4%

Ref GAIN from Con

The first of two vacancies in neighbouring wards.  Both incumbents resigned their posts simultaneously, for similar reasons unrelated to party politics.  In Heacham, the incumbent had already relinquished his role as Norfolk county councillor in May and upon resigning his remaining council seat, stated he was pursuing 'a number of interesting opportunities'.  He had won the second available seat here in 2023, having finished a considerable way behind the first placed independent and only 31 votes ahead of the third placed Labour candidate.  There was no independent candidate this time, leaving Reform to sweep to victory as the Tories slumped to third.  The first of three wooden spoons for Labour.

Karl - Ref GAIN ✔

Rich - Ref GAIN ✔

Snettisham, King's Lynn and West Norfolk Borough Council

Ref: 229 (35.1%) New

LDm: 211 (32.3%) New

Con: 169 (25.9%) -25.8%

Lab: 44 (6.7%) -11.4%

Ref GAIN from Con

The incumbent here had been the leader of the council going into the 2023 election, at which the Conservatives lost overall control for the first time in 20 years.  He had his fingers in a few pies and resigned recently in order to pursue other professional and charitable work.  An independent candidate stood here in 2023 and finished second with 241 votes.  She was absent this time and, as with Heacham above, this appeared to benefit the two newcomers in what was an identical result in terms of party placings.

Karl - Ref GAIN ✔

Rich - Ref GAIN ✔

Hooley, Merstham & Netherne, Reigate & Banstead Borough Council

Grn: 934 (41.8%) +3.4%

Ref: 545 (24.8%) +14.0%

Con: 454 (20.4%) -3.7%

LDm: 166 (7.5%) +0.9%

Lab: 138 (6.2%) -14.0%

Grn GAIN from Con

Triggered by the death of the incumbent, who was only in his early 40s.  He had intended to stand down at next year's election anyway, having undergone three years of treatment for tongue cancer.  The Conservatives are the only party to have ever held outright control of Reigate and Banstead, but the council slipped into no overall control in 2024, with the Tories continuing to run it as a minority administration.  Dwindling Tory numbers over the years coincided with the steady rise of the Greens in this affluent borough.  Their success is very evident in this ward, which in 2022 had three Conservative councillors.  The Greens have won every election here since, wiping out all three of those Tory council seats.  They are now just one seat behind the Conservatives on the council, but unfortunately for the Greens, this authority is being abolished next year and merged into East Surrey Council.

Karl - Grn GAIN ✔

Rich - Grn GAIN ✔

Harton, South Tyneside Council

Ref: 628 (35.3%) -6.7%

Lab: 354 (19.9%) +5.1%

Grn: 312 (17.5%) -1.5%

Ind: 285 (16.0%) -8.2%

Ind: 119 (6.7%) New

Con: 57 (3.2%) New

LDm: 24 (1.3%) New

Ref HOLD

A case of poor candidate vetting by Reform was the trigger for this contest.  Reform obliterated Labour on South Tyneside in May, gaining 41 of the council's 54 seats.  Labour slumped from being the largest party on 28 seats to just one.  In the Harton ward of South Shields, Reform won all three seats and it was the second placed candidate that drew the attention of Hope Not Hate.  The so-called 'anti-fascist' organisation led by communist Nick Lowles, uncovered various politically incorrect online comments by the Reform councillor.  When he was approached by the local press, the new councillor said that he was under the impression he had resigned weeks earlier and complained that Reform had misled him about the amount of work involved in being a councillor.  Making certain his resignation, this could have been a tricky defence for Reform, but they managed to hold off Labour with relative ease.

Karl - Ref HOLD ✔

Rich - Ind GAIN ✘

Karl was lagging seven points behind Richey before his hospitalisation, but he has managed to claw one back on his return.  This was the team's best week yet, with just one incorrect forecast from a possible ten.  Karl is now back up above the 50 per cent accuracy mark, but with only two by-elections next week, Richey's lead is safe for a wee while.