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| Labour's Sagal Abdi-Wali and Zack Polanski are the front-runners to replace Keir Starmer |
Heard the one about the Muslim and the Jew? The fight to replace Keir Starmer - in a by-election he said he wouldn't trigger - will come down to a straight fight on the left between the Greens and Labour. Zack Polanski's decision to stand was a bold move for a leader whose party has been in freefall since May's elections. Despite Labour defending a seat they have held since its creation in 1983, it feels as if they have much less to lose than Polanski's crazy gang.
The Greens have thrown everything at this seat, including the familiar overtures to the Muslim community, which make up a significant proportion of Holborn and St Pancras. However, the chances of the Muslim vote swinging it for the Greens - as it did in Gorton and Denton earlier this year - is highly unlikely. Polanski can make as many promo videos in Urdu as he likes, but his party have played the Muslim card too often and they're wising up. Thousands of Muslims were hoodwinked into voting Green in that Manchester by-election, many of whom only found out later that the party they backed promotes some very liberal policies towards the Alphabet People and drugs.
Less liberal in his approach is George Galloway, who leads the Workers Party of Britain despite having not set foot in Britain for more than a year. His candidacy upset many Green activists, because it fragments the left-wing vote further and the Greens need every vote they can get in this election to avert humiliation. Galloway is currently globetrotting in protest at his detention at Gatwick Airport in September 2025, vowing not to return to the UK without assurances that the same disgraceful act is not carried out again (his devices were confiscated, but he was never charged with any crime). Such is life in Labour's Orwellian Britain.
While Galloway is not present in Holborn and St Pancras, he has a small band of ardent supporters campaigning on his behalf - and unlike the Greens, they have no Alphabet agenda or liberal drugs policies to explain away.
The truth is that the Greens needn't fret over the Workers Party. The latter is unlikely to siphon off enough votes to have any bearing on the result. The bookies have Labour's Abdi-Wali as an odds-on dead cert. At the time of writing, Ladbrokes have her at 1/33, with Polanski limping behind on 12/1. Some online bookies have Labour at 1/50.
The threat to Labour from the Greens has been effectively demolished by Andy Burnham's coronation. If Starmer had managed to cling onto power over the summer, perhaps up to his defeat in a prolonged and divisive leadership contest, the Greens would still be flying high. His prompt departure and Burnham's swift ascendance was a huge blow for Polanski - and there could be one final blow if Starmer's successor increases Labour's majority on Thursday night. Starmer's majority was slashed in 2024 as the party faced a Muslim backlash in cities and mill towns over Palestine, but with Burnham (and even Ed Miliband) masterminding a more Palestine friendly stance, there is a very real chance that their Somali candidate can regain voters previously lost.
There's adopting a Palestine friendly stance and then there's adopting the 'Zionism is racism' stance that has led to more ridicule for the absurd Greens. Polanski did himself no favours by sitting on the fence and abstaining from the party motion, displaying a lack of leadership and direction. The Greens really are their own worst enemies.
Holborn and St Pancras 2024 general election result
Keir Starmer (Lab) 18,884 (48.9%) -17.4%
Andrew Feinstein (Ind) 7,312 (18.9%) New
David Stansell (Grn) 4,030 (10.4%) +6.4%
Mehreen Malik (Con) 2,776 (7.2%) -8.0%
David Roberts (Ref) 2,371 (6.1%) +4.2%
Charlie Clinton (LDm) 2,236 (5.8%) -6.5%
Wais Islam (Ind) 636 (1.6%) New
Nick the Incredible Flying Brick (Loon) 162 (0.4%) New
John Poynton (UKIP) 75 (0.2%) -0.1%
Tom Scripps (SocE) 61 (0.2) +0.1%
Senthil Kumar (Ind) 40 (0.1%) New
Bobby Smith (Ind) 19 (0.0%) New
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