Thursday, 16 October 2025

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 16.10.25


Ten seats were up for grabs this week, with vacancies in Surrey accounting for more than half of them.  There were two Labour defences, both in the crumbling red wall of the north west of England.  They lost both, one each to the Lib Dems and the Tories.

The Lib Dems and Reform pushed Labour into third place in Preston, the party suffering a cratering 35.7 per cent drop in vote share.  There was a significant swing from Labour to Reform in this seat.  A 19 per cent drop in Trafford was enough to gift the seat to the Tories, who won despite a drop in their own vote share.

Labour finished last in an astonishing five seats, including a humiliating tally of 17 votes in Babergh, Suffolk.

North of the border, the outgoing Ayrshire councillor was elected for the SNP, but left the party a year into his term and served as an independent up to his death.  We had this down as an SNP defence.  They lost to an independent.

Elsewhere, it was very much a Lib Dem affair, with the party successfully defending three seats and making four gains - one each at the expense of Labour, the Greens, Tories and a local residents' group.  However, they did not have it all their own way and lost a seat to Reform in Babergh.  There was a significant swing from the Lib Dems to Reform here.

One other party of interest was the Green Party, whose results on the night did not reflect current polling, in which one poll this week had them tied in second place with Labour.  They were not just beaten in their one defence - they were totally demolished and finished a humiliating fifth place.  They made no impression elsewhere, a distant second in Reigate their best result.

Copdock & Washbrook, Babergh District Council

Ref: 323 (32.0%) New
LDm: 292 (28.9%) -27.5%
Grn: 238 (23.6%) +9.5%
Con: 140 (13.9%) -15.7%
Lab: 17 (1.7%) New

Ref GAIN from LDm

Ashton, Preston City Council

LDm: 659 (35.5%) +14.0%
Ref: 548 (29.5%) New
Lab: 429 (23.1%) -35.7%
Ind: 101 (5.4%) New
Con: 61 (3.3%) -16.4%
Ind: 60 (3.2%) New

LDm GAIN from Lab

Meadvale & St John's, Reigate & Banstead Borough Council

LDm: 1,009 (48.3%) +11.7%
Grn: 368 (17.6%) -0.5%
Con: 251 (12.0%) -16.9%
Ref: 242 (11.6%) New
Ind: 218 (10.4%) New

LDm HOLD

Ayr North, South Ayrshire Council

(first preference votes)

Ind: 850 (25.1%) New
SNP: 790 (23.3%) -22.5%
Lab: 691 (20.4%) -3.7%
Ref: 584 (17.3%) New
Con: 195 (5.8%) -14.8%
Ind: 151 (4.5%) New
LDm: 73 (2.2%) +0.5%
Ind: 51 (1.5%) New

Ind GAIN from SNP (elected at stage 8)

Staines, Spelthorne Borough Council

LDm: 804 (38.0%) New
Ref: 499 (23.6%) +21.6%
Ind: 261 (12.3%) New
Con: 231 (10.9%) -21.9%
Grn: 163 (7.7%) -36.3%
Lab: 158 (7.5%) New

LDm GAIN from Grn

Camberley West, Surrey County Council

LDm: 1,617 (49.5%) +16.6%
Ref: 845 (25.9%) New
Con: 666 (20.4%) -28.8%
Lab: 140 (4.3%) -11.4%

LDm GAIN from Con

Caterham Valley, Surrey County Council

LDm: 1,182 (48.1%) +0.6%
Ref: 601 (24.5%) New
Con: 320 (13.0%) -23.5%
Grn: 135 (5.5%) New
Ind: 131 (5.3%) New
Lab: 89 (3.6%) -6.9%

LDm HOLD

Guildford South East, Surrey County Council

LDm: 1,426 (41.3%) +18.0%
Con: 788 (22.8%) -8.1%
Ind: 565 (16.3%) -21.4%
Ref: 416 (12.0%) New
Grn: 172 (5.0%) New
Lab: 89 (2.6%) -5.6%

LDm GAIN from Ind

Whyteleafe, Tandridge District Council

LDm: 259 (44.9%) +14.2%
Ref: 154 (26.7%) New
Con: 57 (9.9%) +0.4%
Lab: 56 (9.7%) -1.7%
Grn: 51 (8.8%) +3.6%

LDm HOLD

Broadheath, Trafford Metropolitan Borough Council

Con: 1,614 (36.8%) -4.4%
Lab: 978 (22.3%) -19.0%
LDm:: 841 (19.2%) +14.9%
Ref: 723 (16.5%) +11.2%
Grn: 204 (4.7%) -1.9%
Ind: 22 (0.5%) -0.8%

Con GAIN from Lab

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