Tuesday 23 March 2021


The Tories' vaccine poll surge appears to have extended to Wales with the latest YouGov poll suggesting they have closed the gap on Labour to just two points.  If repeated in May's Senedd election, Labour would suffer its worst performance since power was devolved in 1999.  It would also have to seek a significant coalition partner in order to govern effectively, rather than the handful of Lib Dems it relied on in the 2016 election.  As fellow manky socialists, Plaid Cymru would be the obvious go to choice for comrade Drakeford.

Senedd voting intention (YouGov, 16-19 March)

Lab 32% (-1)
Con 30% (+2)
Plaid 23% (+1)
LDem 5% (+1)
AWAP 3% (+3)
Reform 3% (-1)
Green 2% (-2)
Other 2% (-3)

AWAP = Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party

With regional polling thrown in, the results of the YouGov poll would give Labour just 22 seats, down eight from 2016.  The Tories would win 19 seats, up eight from 2016.  Plaid would win 14, up two, meaning Drakeford's first call after the election would be to Adam Price their leader.

A socialist coalition with a separatist agenda from the junior partner?  Disastrous for Wales.