Thursday 6 May 2021


Aspiring politician Laurence Fox will get his first big test today when he stands in London's mayoral election.  A record 20 candidates are standing in the election, so Fox is among a very crowded field.  Each candidate needs at least five per cent of the vote in order to save their deposit, which is a whopping £10,000 in this election.  With the two leading candidates set to receive as much as 80 per cent between them, it doesn't take a genius to work out that most of those candidates will lose their deposits.

Fox will do well to keep his, but with a household name and big money backing his Reclaim Party, he could potentially do much better.  Some Tories are worried that his presence will 'split the vote' and hamper Shaun Bailey's chances.  Unfortunately, for everyone, Bailey has little chance of success anyway.

In the most recent opinion poll Bailey was 12 points behind Khan in the first ballot and 18 points behind in the final round.  The final round is required if no candidate achieves more than 50 per cent in the first ballot.  Khan had been polling more than 50 per cent earlier in the spring, peaking at 53 per cent in March.  Having fallen to 43 per cent on the eve of polling will dent his massive ego.

London Mayoral Poll (YouGov, 2-4 May)

Sadiq Khan (Lab) 43% (-4)
Shaun Bailey (Con) 31% (+5)
Siân Berry (Green) 10% (+1)
Luisa Porritt (LDem) 5% (-2)
Laurence Fox (Rec)  3% (-1)
Others 8% (+1)

Final Round

Khan 59% (-7)
Bailey 41% (+7)

The sample size was 1,147.  Changes are against YouGov's poll conducted 29 March-1 April.

Contrary to the warblings of some Tory backers, there is nothing wrong with Shaun Bailey's candidacy.  They will blame Bailey when he fails to defeat Khan, but the sad truth is that there was no-one else they could put forward who would have been a significant threat to the mayor of this painfully woke city.  A rapidly changing demographic killed off their chances, not their candidate.

Bailey is a great candidate who is more than a match for Khan and has the common touch that Khan lacks.  Khan is great when it comes to ego-massaging selfies with his adoring woke electorate, but he runs a mile when a disgruntled peasant approaches.  He is archetypal of the modern Labour politician - working class people are like vermin to him and the sooner they are run out of London completely the better.  The future is grim for our capital city and it seems that no matter how much crime spirals out of control, the middle classes can't get enough of Khan.

For now all we can hope is that Bailey does better than expected and Fox, too.  A saved deposit for the latter would spare his blushes and give him a base on which to build.  The continuing overlap between his party and Reform may lead to an official merger later on, but the British people are crying out for a third party to challenge the two-party protection racket that offers nothing but lockdown and misery.

London Mayoral Candidates

Shaun Bailey (Conservative)
Kam Balayev (Renew)
Siân Berry (Green)
Count Binface (Count Binface Party)
Valerie Brown (Burning Pink)
Piers Corbyn (Let London Live)
Max Fosh (Ind)
Laurence Fox (Reclaim)
Peter Gammons (UKIP)
Richard Hewison (Rejoin EU)
Vanessa Hudson (Animal Welfare)
Steve Kelleher (SDP)
Sadiq Khan (Labour)
David Kurten (Heritage)
Farah London (Ind)
Niko Omilana (Ind)
Nims Obunge (Ind)
Luisa Porritt (Lib Dem)
Mandu Reid (Women's Equality)
Brian Rose (London Real)