Saturday 8 May 2021


In the battle for London mayor, polling expert Professor John Curtice has forecast a first round result of 41 per cent for Sadiq Khan and 35 per cent for Shaun Bailey.  A final round run-off would be required, which Khan is almost certain to win.  Curtice made his forecast with only three London boroughs left to declare.

35 per cent for Bailey would be the same vote share achieved by Zac Goldsmith in 2016, but is a better performance than any opinion poll predicted.  41 per cent for Khan would be less than any of the polls gave him.  Khan had been predicted to cruise to victory in poll after poll, peaking with a 25 point lead in March.  Make no mistake, if he wins with a greatly reduced majority, it will hurt his ego - if nothing else.

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