Tuesday 4 May 2021


Undoubtedly the most important election taking place on Thursday will be north of the border.  The outcome of the Holyrood elections could potentially shape the future of the entire United Kingdom.  If Sturgeon and her separatist allies win a majority of seats they will push for another independence referendum, despite telling everybody in 2014 that such an event was 'once in a generation'.

According to most recent polling the SNP are projected to win an outright majority, but even if they fall short they can rely on the pro-indy Greens to back them up.  The highly respected pollster Professor John Curtice predicts that the SNP will win 68 seats, a majority of four.  The Greens would more than double their current tally of five and pick up 13 seats.  The other pro-indy party of Alex Salmond would enter Holyrood with one seat, but according to Professor Curtice it is unlikely to be Salmond who picks up that solitary seat (bit awkward).

Nicola Sturgeon has reason to be cheerful

Hapless Salmond, seen here trying to spell the name of his own party, may not be
victorious on Thursday.  The only Alba gain is likely to be Eva Comrie (far right)

Despite the mainstream media talking up Labour's new leader Anas Sarwar, his party looks set to finish third for the second consecutive election.  According to Professor Curtice, the Tories will pick up around 26 seats - down five - but will stay well clear of Labour who will lose seven seats and end up with as little as 17.

Curtice's predictions are based on the following YouGov polling.  Note that like Wales, Scottish voters get two votes - one constituency and one regional.

Holyrood Constituency Poll (YouGov, 2-4 May)

SNP 52% (+3)
Con 20% (-1)
Lab 19% (-2)
LDem 6% (-)
Green 2% (+1)
Other 1% (-1)

Holyrood Regional Poll (YouGov, 2-4 May)

SNP 38% (-1)
Con 22% (-)
Lab 16% (-1)
Green 13% (+3)
LDem 5% (-)
Alba 3% (+1)
Reform 1% (-)
Other 2% (-)

The sample size was 1,000 and changes are against YouGov's poll conducted 16-20 April.

While Sturgeon will be over the moon if these polls are reproduced on Thursday, there is less enthusiasm for her independence dream.  Polling on independence swung away from Yes last month, including a Savanta poll that gave No a seven point lead.  However, in two of the most recent polls the question has returned a dead heat.

Scottish Independence Polls

Yes 45% (-) No 45% (+2) Opinium, 28 April-3 May
Yes 48% (+1) No 45% (-3) Panelbase, 28-30 April
Yes 47% (-2) No 47% (-1) BMG, 27-30 April
Yes 42% (-2) No 49% (+1) Savanta, 23-27 April
Yes 42% (-2) No 47% (+2) Survation, 23-26 April