Tuesday 4 May 2021


Keir Starmer has been rocked by a double whammy ahead of the crucial by-election in Hartlepool.  A new poll by Survation has put the Tory candidate a whopping 17 points ahead of Labour, while canvassing returns from the party's own activists suggests only 40 per cent of existing Labour voters are prepared to back the party on Thursday.

The sample size for Survation's poll is pitifully small at 517, but the canvassing returns of Labour activists are not.  According to The Guardian, Labour teams have canvassed more than 10,000 voters in Hartlepool, representing around 14 per cent of the electorate.  Labour is defending a 3,595 majority going into the by-election and it's not looking good for Sir Squeaky.

Hartlepool Parliamentary By-Election Poll (Survation, 23-29 April)

Con 50% (+1)
Lab 33% (-9)
Ind (Walker) 6% (+4)
Ind (Lee) 6% (+2)
Green 3% (+2)
LDem  1% (-)
Reform  1% (-)

The sample size was 517 and changes are against Survation's poll conducted 29 March-3 April.

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