Tuesday 27 October 2020


A misleading headline appeared on a left-wing news website over the weekend.  The London Economic reported that Labour had taken a lead in the polls, but the story actually concerned a single opinion poll and another poll released the same day showed a Tory lead.

The London Economic was referring to the latest Opinium poll in which Labour had taken a two point lead after support for the Tories dipped (see below).

Opinium poll 22-23 Oct (changes from 8-9 Oct)

Lab 40% (-)
Con 38% (-2)
LD 6% (-)
SNP 5% (-1)
Green 5% (+2)
Other 6% (-)

While some recent polls have suggested the parties are tied, only one other poll this year has shown a Labour lead - last month the same polling organisation showed a three point Labour lead.  It's probably purely coincidental that Opinium conducts its polls on behalf of The Guardian's sister newspaper - The Observer.

Deltapoll released their latest poll on the same day as Opinium's, but suggested that it was the Tories who were in the lead.

Deltapoll poll 22-24 Oct (changes from 24-25 Sept)

Con 42% (-)
Lab 39% (+1)
LD 7% (+1)
SNP 3% (-2)
Green 3% (-1)
Other 7% (+2)

It's also worth noting that Deltapoll conducts its polls on behalf of the Mail on Sunday.

YouGov's latest poll suggests a wafer thin Tory lead of one per cent.

YouGov poll 21-22 Oct (changes from 14-15 Oct)

Con 40% (+1)
Lab 39% (+1)
LD 7% (+1)
SNP 5% (-)
Green 5% (-1)
Other 6% (-1)

Redfield and Wilton's poll suggests the parties are tied.

Redfield & Wilton poll 21 Oct (changes from 6-7 Oct)

Con 40% (-1)
Lab 40% (+1)
LD 7% (-1)
SNP 5% (+1)
Green 4% (-)
Other 4% (+1)

So despite claims by The London Economic, Labour do not lead in the polls.  They lead in one poll.  However, it is clear that things have changed dramatically since the start of the pandemic.  In March the Tories were averaging 50 per cent while Labour were way behind at around 29 per cent.  Now they are almost even, and that's prior to a devastating recession.

Sample sizes for the above polls are 2,002 (Opinium), 1,589 (Deltapoll), 1,665 (YouGov) and 3,000 (Redfield & Wilton).