The latest YouGov poll suggests Keir Starmer's tough talk on migration has had little effect on his party's popularity, quite the opposite in fact. Labour have actually dropped a percentage point, while Reform UK have gained one. The most significant aspect of the poll is the fact that the Tories have slumped into fourth place behind the Lib Dems, garnering their lowest ever vote share in the history of the polling organisation.
The poll was carried out between the 18th and 19th of May. Here are the changes (in brackets) against the previous YouGov poll, carried out between 11th and 12th of May.
Reform UK = 29% (+1)
Labour = 22% (-1)
Lib Dem = 17% (+1)
Conservative = 16% (-2)
Green = 10% (+1)
SNP = 2% (-1)
Plaid = 1% (n/c)
Others = 2% (-1)
Kemi Badenoch's faltering leadership is probably on borrowed time, with her defeated leadership opponent Robert Jenrick currently engaged in an aggressive social media campaign to portray himself as a hard right alternative to both Badenoch and Nigel Farage. The problem with Jenrick is that he is no more detached from the Tory party's disastrous last term than Badenoch, and his attempt to paint himself as a real conservative now is too little, too late.
Another catastrophic performance in next May's elections could prompt a leadership challenge, but all this will achieve is to merely rearrange the deckchairs on a sinking Tory Titantic.
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