It's two Tory defences and one each for Labour and the Lib Dems in this week's four contests.
The latter is a tricky one to call. The Vale of White Horse in Oxfordshire is very much a middle class affair, with the only parties represented on the council Lib Dem and Green. The Tories came very close in this ward last time round, losing to the Lib Dems by only ten votes. However, that was without a Reform candidate and the insurgents' presence this time is likely to eat into that Tory share. Alongside the Greens, this by-election could be won by any of four parties, but we'll stick our necks out for a surprise Reform gain.
The Tory defence in Sevenoaks, Kent, is also likely to be decided by Reform's presence. They could potentially deliver the seat to the Lib Dems if they split the Conservative vote significantly, but more likely is they will simply storm into first place from scratch.
Two seats are up for grabs in Lincolnshire, with the deaths of long-standing incumbent Lab-Con councillors. Axholme Central will see three newcomers, but we don't think any of them will unseat the Tories. Reform are likely to be the main challengers. Labour look more vulnerable over in Brumby ward, with Reform the only newcomers there. There is potential for a Labour hold, but we're going for yet another Reform gain.
Results will appear below.
Brumby, North Lincolnshire Council
(Lab defence)
Axholme Central, North Lincolnshire Council
(Con defence)
Halstead, Knockholt & Badgers Mount, Sevenoaks District Council
(Con defence)
Stanford, Vale of White Horse District Council
(LDm defence)
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