COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 05.03.26

Five council seats were up for grabs this week, with one Labour defence taking place in Staffordshire.  That Tamworth by-election was a tough one to call, with both Reform and the Greens debuting in a historically Tory ward that was gained by Labour three years ago.  We said Labour wouldn't hold and they finished last, with the insurgent parties taking the top two spots.  We predicted a rare Tory gain here, but it was an impressive Reform gain, topping the poll with more than twice the number of votes as the second placed Greens.

Over in Essex, Reform narrowly gained a second seat at the hands of an independent group affiliated with the Greens.  The margin was 37 votes, but a win's a win.  We predicted an Independent hold.

It wasn't all plain sailing for Reform on the night, with a worrying defeat for the party in County Durham - a county council they control.  We thought Reform had got enough to hold, but astonishingly Labour stormed back in one of their old northern strongholds.  It wasn't even close as Reform slumped to second and Labour gained their first council seat since May 2025.  The result was the first to declare on the night, which led some morons on social media to celebrate a tad early.  They went quiet after the party gained two seats elsewhere, and overall the narrative around a burst bubble was opened up to ridicule - Reform finished either first or second in all five available seats.

As we expected, it was a routine hold for the Greens in their West Country stamping ground, while a free-for-all vacancy went to the Conservatives in Kent (not Reform as we predicted).

One out of five correct this week, it's just a blip!

Coggeshall, Braintree District Council

Ref: 554 (30.7%) New

Ind: 517 (28.7%) -26.3%

Lab: 366 (20.3%) +4.4%

Con: 311 (17.2%) -12.6%

LDm: 55 (3.1%) New

Ref GAIN from Ind

Murton, Durham County Council

Lab: 1,004 (50.6%) +17.6%

Ref: 786 (39.6%) -4.5%

Grn: 95 (4.8%) New

Con: 61 (3.1%) -2.0%

LDm: 38 (1.9%) -2.3%

Lab GAIN from Ref

Hextable. Sevenoaks District Council

Con: 600 (38.9%) +19.3%

Ref: 406 (26.3%) New

LDm: 367 (23.8%) New

Ind: 108 (7.0%) New

Grn: 62 (4.0%) New

Con GAIN from Ind

Thrupp, Stroud District Council

Grn: 540 (67.5%) +3.1%

Ref: 132 (16.5%) New

Con: 58 (7.3%) -10.3%

Lab: 48 (5.8%) -12.3%

LDm: 22 (2.8%) New

UKIP: 2 (0.3%) New

Grn HOLD

Spital, Tamworth Borough Council

Ref: 719 (44.6%) New

Grn: 337 (20.4%) New

Con: 319 (19.4%) -18.9%

Lab: 273 (16.6%) -23.4%

Ref GAIN from Lab