Friday 6 October 2023


Labour's crushing victory over the SNP in the Rutherglen by-election has implications far beyond the Scottish borders.  The SNP's persistent electoral successes have been a major hindrance to any hopes of a Labour general election victory since 2010.  Gordon Brown left office with 41 of the 59 Scottish seats still in Labour hands, but Ed Miliband lost 40 of those in 2015.  Labour never recovered from that crushing blow and prior to Rutherglen still had just one MP north of the border.

They now have two MPs in Scotland, thanks to a huge 20 per cent swing in Thursday's by-election.  If such a colossal swing were to be repeated in the next general election, Labour would surge back in Scotland and potentially deliver the keys of Number Ten to Keir Starmer.

However, things are not all gloomy for Westminster Conservatives.  While Labour may be on the up as a result of SNP free fall, things are not so rosy for them in Wales.  It is yet to be seen just how fierce the electoral backlash will be in the wake of Mark Drakeford's absurd 20 miles per hour scheme.  If Labour were to haemorrhage seats in the still standing 'red wall' of South Wales that could wipe out a potential advance in Scotland.  The more densely populated Valleys account for more than half of Wales' 20 Westminster seats and all but two are currently red.

Labour's war on the motorist in Wales, London and beyond could yet be Starmer's undoing.

Rutherglen & Hamilton West Parliamentary By-Election

Michael Shanks (Lab) 17,845 (58.6%) +24.1%
Katy Loudon (SNP) 8,399 (27.6%) -16.6%
Thomas Kerr (Con) 1,192 (3.9%) -11.1%
Gloria Adebo (LDem) 895 (2.9%) -2.3%
Cameron Eadie (Grn) 601 (2.0%) New
David Stark (RefUK) 403 (1.3%) New
Niall Fraser (SFP) 319 (1.1%) New
Bill Bonnar (SSP) 271 (0.9%) New
Colette Walker (ISP) 207 (0.7%) New
Christopher Sermanni (TUSC) 178 (0.6%) New
Andrew Daly (Ind) 81 (0.3%) New
Ewan Hoyle (Volt) 46 (0.2%) New
Prince Ankit Love, Emperor of India (Ind) 34 (0.1%) New
Garry Cooke (Ind) 6 (0.1%<) New

Lab GAIN from SNP

This month's Time magazine celebrates Humza Yousaf, in
remarkably poor sense of timing

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