Saturday 22 June 2019


The third Parliamentary by-election of the year will take place after Tory MP Chris Davies was sacked via recall petition.  Earlier this year Labour's Fiona Onasanya made history by becoming the first MP to lose her seat in this manner.  Davies had been convicted of making false expenses claims and, like Onasanya, he refused to give up his seat on the Westminster gravy train.  Good riddance.  These two MPs epitomise everything that is wrong with our political system today.  In years gone by an MP might have the decency to stand down following a criminal conviction, but not any more.  Shameful.

Davies was brought down by 19% of his electorate, easily surpassing the 10% required in order to get rid of him.  This wasn't quite as impressive as the 28% who signed in Peterborough, but the result is the same.  We now await a by-election date.

Unlike Onasanya, Davies has indicated he wants to contest the seat again as the Tory candidate.  A recalled MP can rightfully stand again in the resulting by-election, but the Tories would be mad to re-select him after such a strong turnout against him.

2017 General Election result

Christopher Davies (Con) 20,081
James Gibson-Watt (Lib-Dem) 12,043
Dan Lodge (Lab) 7,335
Kate Heneghan (Plaid) 1,299
Peter Gilbert (UKIP) 576

In the 2016 EU referendum Brecon & Radnorshire returned a 52% Leave vote.  The Brexit Party has not yet indicated it will stand.  To do so will almost certainly gift the seat to the Lib Dems and this would replace a Leave vote in the Commons with yet another Remainer.  Davies was a member of the pro-Brexit ERG (European Research Group).  Pro-Remain Plaid Cymru have already suggested it may not contest the seat in order to boost the pro-Remain Lib Dems.  The bookies have the Lib Dems as 'odds-on' to win the seat, but then they had the Brexit Party as 'odds-on' in Peterborough.  Take note Labour - there aren't many Muslim postal votes to be had here!

The position of Brecon & Radnorshire in Wales