IS BURNHAM'S 'CREDIBLE PLAN' CREDIBLE?

The Mayor of Greater Manchester is clearly desperate to replace Starmer, but his path remains by far the most difficult of all the PM's potential successors - primarily because he remains outside the Parliamentary Labour Party and cannot challenge Starmer.  However, Mr Burnham reportedly has a 'credible plan' to make a swift return to Westminster 'within weeks'.  That's according to a report in The Guardian, but how 'credible' is this supposed plan?

The plan is quite simple.  Burnham reportedly has 'identified several seats where MPs are prepared to step aside for his leadership bid'.  There is no indication as to who might be prepared to sacrifice their place on the Westminster gravy train, but in order for Burnham's triumphant return 'in weeks', they would have to do it very soon.  Clearly, if there is a plan, the MP would resign in the wake of Labour's imminent electoral disaster.  The resulting by-election would then take place in either the first or second week of June.

However, as with Gorton and Denton, Burnham still has massive obstacles in his way.  Firstly, he has to somehow overcome the biggest of all - the National Executive Committee.  It was the NEC that blocked his candidacy in Gorton and Denton and there is nothing new to suggest this won't happen again.  The NEC is chaired by Shabana Mahmood, includes Ellie Reeves (younger sister of the Chancellor, who has as much to lose as Starmer) and the wet blanket Jonathan Reynolds who is Starmer's chief whip.  Starmer himself also sits on the NEC.  As deputy leader, Lucy Powell is also there, and she would argue for Burnham as she did previously for Gorton and Denton.  A vote on Burnham's candidacy would probably be closer than the 8-1 majority that kept him out previously, but whether it would swing back enough is debatable.

Secondly, Burnham needs to actually win the by-election if he is selected.  There aren't many 'safe seats' for Labour these days and - combined with the equally far-fetched notion of some Westminster parasite willing to jump off the gravy train - it will be interesting to see if Burnham can combine these two unlikely scenarios.

His best route to success would be somewhere on Merseyside.  This is one area where one could argue there are still 'safe seats' for Labour and what's more - Burnham is a Scouser himself.  He would likely win in this scenario, particularly as his campaign would largely be built on replacing the hated Starmer.  Are there any Merseyside MPs willing to give way?  No-one is spilling the beans.  Currently, the only MP who has suggested they are willing to give up their seat is Clive Lewis of Norwich South.  However, as we have argued previously, this is not a serious offer and Burnham would not particularly want to parachute in anywhere that will tarnish his 'king in the north' persona.

That may change, but we'll find out soon enough.

Rayner and Streeting are ready to move and they don't have to jump through half as many hoops as Burnham in order to get there.  Who moves first?  It's hard to say, but the vultures are circling above Number Ten as Labour's electoral catastrophe unfolds...