COUNCIL BY-ELECTION 30.04.26

Just one council seat was up for grabs on Thursday, the last electoral contest before next week's huge round of elections.  We saw this as a three-way contest with the lack of an independent candidate this time leaving hundreds of extra votes available to the parties.  Reform and the Greens were likely to benefit from the absence.  The Greens already have seats on the council and with Reform eating into the Tory vote, it was possible that Polanski's crazy gang could sneak through the middle for a cheeky gain.

However, the Greens put up a trans candidate - a male masquerading as a woman - which was likely to rile up many voters.  And so it transpired, with the Greens going backwards in this ward and Reform - as we predicted - taking the seat from the Conservatives.  Labour did not field a candidate, but they did not last time either and the party has no seats on the council.

Meanwhile, Reform have picked up their first seat on Malvern Hills DC.

Tenbury, Malvern Hills District Council

Ref: 687 (45.1%) New

Con: 461 (30.3%) -20.2%

LDm: 193 (12.7%) New

Grn: 182 (12.0%) -15.6%

Ref GAIN from Con

We won't be doing any major set of predictions for next week, the elections are so numerous that we just won't have the time.  A short preview will appear in the next few days.  All we can say for now is that Labour are not simply going to get thumped, they are going to experience their worst local election results in history.

Going forward, our hit and miss predictions are going to change in format.  Instead of us having to hold a discussion each week - in which we don't always agree on the outcome - we will simply submit our own individual forecasts and essentially go head-to-head.  Then you will see once and for all who is the most politically astute!