This week we have just one solitary by-election, a notional Reform defence in Kent. The incumbent left office as an independent, having been disqualified after pleading guilty to controlling and coercive behaviour (towards his wife). Cllr Daniel Taylor was arrested and charged just a month after being elected and was promptly suspended by Reform. He was jailed for a year last month.
This will be the first council by-election since Reform took control of Kent in May and challengers will be seeking to turn it into a damaging referendum on their administration. Reform were miles ahead of second-placed Labour in this ward last May, but that was before anyone had a chance to see what a Reform council would look like. Things haven't exactly gone smoothly, which is perhaps no great surprise for a party whose rapid electoral success has outpaced its ability to organise itself. The chaos in the council house, combined with the nature of the incumbent's dismissal, suggests that Reform will struggle in this by-election.
The Greens think they can win it and have bussed in activists with even Zack Polanski hitting the campaign trail, but they would need an exceptionally strong swing in a ward that is not traditionally left-oriented. We think this could be a Conservative gain, with the Greens overtaking Labour.
Counting will begin on Friday morning.
Cliftonville, Kent County Council
(Ref defence)
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