Friday 6 September 2024

COUNCIL BY-ELECTIONS 05.09.24


With seven by-elections having taken place on Thursday, it seems as good a time as any to resume our weekly by-election report.  With a backlash against Starmer's nanny state already in progress, local election results can help us form a bigger picture as to how public opinion is shifting.

Three of the seats up for grabs were in Camden, two of which are situated in Keir Starmer's constituency of Holborn and St Pancras.  Turnout in one ward - Kilburn - was just 13 per cent.  Labour held all three, but with a reduced vote share.  In Camden Square and Kentish Town South there were big swings from Labour to Muslim independents, continuing a trend set in the general election and sure to cause Labour huge electoral problems in their old inner city and mill town heartlands as Britain's demographics continue to shift rapidly.

Labour also held a seat in Cheshire, but again with a reduced vote share thanks to a huge swing to Reform UK.  The pattern was repeated in Manchester where they held with a reduced share that went mostly to the Green candidate.  They gained an independent seat in south Wales, but lost a seat in North Yorkshire to the Conservatives, where the swing away from Labour was distributed across various newcomers, but mostly went to the victorious Tory candidate.

Camden Square, Camden London Borough Council

Lab: 465 (47.7%) -27.8%
Ind: 164 (16.8%) New
Grn: 133 (13.7%) New
LDem: 89 (9.1%) -4.9%
Ind: 75 (7.7%) New
Con: 48 (4.9%) -5.5%

Lab HOLD

Kentish Town South, Camden London Borough Council

Lab: 674 (46.8%) -12.0%
Grn: 327 (22.7%) +1.1%
Ind: 289 (20.1%) New
Con: 77 (5.4%) -2.4%
LDem: 72 (5.0%) -3.0%

Lab HOLD

Kilburn, Camden London Borough Council

Lab: 583 (51.5%) -15.2%
Con: 253 (22.3%) +4.2%
Grn: 198 (17.5%) (New
LDem: 98 (8.7%) -6.5%

Lab HOLD

Crewe West, Cheshire East Council

Lab: 553 (43.3%) -18.5%
Ref: 333 (26.1%) New
Con: 217 (17.0%) -0.7%
Ind: 109 (8.5%) -11.8%
Grn: 63 (4.9%) New

Lab HOLD

Baguley, Manchester City Council

Lab: 623 (46.9%) -15.9%
Grn: 282 (21.2%) +8.6%
Con: 243 (18.3%) -1.6%
LDem: 110 (8.3%) +2.4%
SDP: 71 (5.3%) New

Lab HOLD

Bedlinog & Trelewis, Merthyr Tydfil County Borough Council

Lab: 411 (48.8%) +16.1%
Ind: 314 (37.2%) New
Plaid: 83 (9.8%) New
Con: 24 (2.8%) -2.3%
Ind: 11 (1.3%) New

Lab GAIN from Ind

Longbeck, Redcar & Cleveland Borough Council

Con: 384 (37.9%) +14.9%
Lab: 206 (20.4%) -19.4%
Ind: 119 (11.8%) New
Ref: 108 (10.7%) New
Ind: 105 (10.4%) New
Ind: 50 (4.9%) New
LDem: 40 (4.0%) New

Con GAIN from Lab

Abbreviations

Lab = Labour
Grn = Green
LDem = Liberal Democrat
Con = Conservative
Ref = Reform UK
SDP = Social Democratic Party
Plaid = Plaid Cymru
Ind = Independents and local groups

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