Tuesday 2 July 2024


Farage made the most of the milkshake incident during his campaign launch

Can he?  Well, put it this way - if Nigel Farage does not enter the House of Commons at this election, he may never get a better chance.  Reform UK simply must deliver at this election, and that means not just gathering millions of votes and dozens of second places - they must actually win seats.  Their newly reappointed leader must also be one of Reform's victors.

It's a big ask in our two party system for a small party to break through.  The Greens have been going for decades and are still only expected to win one, maybe two seats at this election.  Reform UK have only been around since 2019 and are yet to win a UK Parliamentary election.  Polling suggests they could win a handful of seats on Thursday and anything upward of five in our view would be absolutely stunning.  They could then spend the next five years going full tilt at every by-election, building momentum to quite possibly replace the Conservatives at the next election.  Some believe they could replace them at this election...

Clacton has significant history with Eurosceptic parties, having elected a UKIP member in the 2014 by-election.  Douglas Carswell held the seat for UKIP in the 2015 general election, but his relationship with then leader Farage soured and he had left the party by 2017.  UKIP lost the seat in that election and it was the last time a Leave party contested Clacton, until now.

With no UKIP or Brexit Party candidate in 2019, the Tories extended their lead over Labour and will go into this election defending a very healthy 24,702 majority.  Former actor Giles Watling has been the MP since 2017 and is standing again this time.

Labour would have a sniff here were it not for the Farage circus, but this is a two-horse race and Reform will go head to head with the Tories.  Nine candidates are on the ballot.  Will UKIP and the Heritage Party take enough votes from Reform to save the Conservatives?  Doubtful.

Matthew Bensilum (LDem)
Nigel Farage (RefUK)
Craig Jamieson (Clim)
Tony Mack (Ind)
Natasha Osben (Grn)
Jovan Owusu-Nepaul (Lab)
Tasos Papanastasiou (Herit)
Andrew Pemberton (UKIP)
Giles Watling (Con)

BTLP seat prediction: RefUK GAIN from Con

1 comment:

  1. Farage to win seat with 40% of the vote, Reform to win 6 or 7 seats total.