Wednesday 3 July 2024


Polling day is almost upon us now and we're trying to squeeze in as many seat predictions as we can.  We posted the above meme to Facebook earlier today, leaving some wondering if it was possible to get rid of any of these committed globalists at all.  We've already covered Ed Miliband's seat, so here we will do a very quick rundown of the other seven featured in the meme.

Leeds West & Pudsey

Technically a new seat, Labour's Rachel Reeves will be hoping to build on the 10,564 majority she received in her previous constituency of Leeds West.  With only the Conservative candidate anywhere near her in 2019, she is likely to be returned fairly easily.  Reform will poll well here and could push the crumbling Tories into third place.

BTLP seat prediction: Lab WIN (new seat)

Stalybridge & Hyde

Held by Labour since 1945, this seat became a marginal in 2019 as Labour's Jonathan Reynolds clung on with a 2,946 majority.  The Tories were the only challengers in 2019, but Reform could push them into third place on Thursday.

BTLP seat prediction: Lab HOLD

Godalming & Ash

This is a new constituency resulting from major boundary changes.  Jeremy Hunt has opted to contest this seat, succeeding the abolished South West Surrey constituency, from which he received an 8,817 majority in 2019.  The Lib Dems were resurgent in that election and while we believe the PM is safe in Richmond, the Chancellor is toast in Godalming.

BTLP seat prediction: LDem WIN (new seat)


A red seat since 1964, Dave Lammy defending a 30,175 majority, no significant challengers to speak of - hands down easy hold for the soon-to-be Foreign Secretary.

BTLP seat prediction: Lab HOLD

Aberafan Maesteg

Another new seat largely formed from Stephen Kinnock's old seat of Aberavon, which he had held since 2015 and signed off with a 10,490 majority in 2019.  While Labour won't poll quite as strongly in Wales as it will in England, the Kinnock dynasty is set to continue in Westminster with no significant challengers to him.

BTLP seat prediction: Lab WIN (new seat)


Previously known as Tonbridge & Malling, Bilderberg regular Tom Tugendhat obtained an impressive 26,941 majority in 2019.  The boundary changes slightly favour him, with Labour and the Lib Dems likely fighting it out for second place.  Tugendhat will be one of few Tories to save a spot on the WEFminster gravy train and he and his masters will be eyeing up the leadership position, if not now - for the future.

BTLP seat prediction: Con WIN (new seat)

Portsmouth North

Penny Mordaunt will defend a 15,780 majority here on Thursday, having held the seat since 2010 when she gained it from Labour.  This is going to be a tight race between Mordaunt and Labour, with the presence of newcomers Reform likely to decide the contest.  If they take votes from Labour, they could save Mordaunt, but it's unlikely to be enough.

BTLP seat prediction: Lab GAIN from Con

Look out for more BTLP seat predictions on polling day.

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