Thursday 4 July 2024


We are aiming to get at least 50 seat predictions in before polling closes at 22:00.  Here are some more we've looked at today...


One to watch and tricky to call.  Ex-Labour councillor Lee Anderson was elected a Tory MP in 2019 and has since defected to Reform UK.  Ashfield is historically a Labour seat, but they were pushed into third in 2019 by a local independent who is standing again, despite awaiting trial on multiple criminal charges.  A lot of votes could be up for grabs there and if Anderson can take votes from both Labour and the Tories, he could take this seat.

BTLP seat prediction: RefUK GAIN from Con


Considering she is deputy leader (with aspirations to be PM we strongly suspect), Angela Rayner is in possession of a relatively small majority of 4,263.  However, because her main challenger in 2019 was the Conservative candidate, she is going to be safe, regardless of George Galloway's threats to oust her with his Workers Party of Britain candidate.

BTLP seat prediction: Lab HOLD

Basildon & Billericay

A relatively new seat, created in 2010 and held by the Conservatives since.  Tory chair Richard Holden will try and defend a 20,412 majority over Labour, but in previous elections it was much closer.  There is strong Brexit support here and Holden could potentially fall to Reform.  It's going to be close and Labour could sneak it.

BTLP seat prediction: Lab GAIN from Con

Boston & Skegness

A blue seat since its creation in 1997, the Tory incumbent will attempt to defend his 25,621 majority against major challenges from Labour and Reform.  Richard Tice is standing for Reform and will desperately want to join Farage in the Commons.  This will be a tight three-way, but we see Tice narrowly victorious.

BTLP seat prediction: RefUK GAIN from Con


The Home Secretary's seat has been blue since 2005 and Mr Cleverly will be defending a 24,673 majority.  Labour will run him close here, but not close enough in our opinion.

BTLP seat prediction: Con HOLD

Castle Point

This Essex seat is traditionally blue and the incumbent is defending a lofty 26,634 majority.  The challengers here could be Reform and there is a healthy history of Euroscepticism.  Reform will win a handful of seats at best today, but we believe this will be one of them.

BTLP seat prediction: RefUK GAIN from Con

Chingford & Woodford Green

Iain Duncan Smith has held this London seat since 1992, but from 2010 onwards his majority has shrunk at each successive election.  He is now in ultra marginal territory with just a 1,262 advantage over Labour in 2019.  One wonders why he didn't stand down at this election and maintain some dignity.  Is he hoping for another punt at the Tory leadership?  He's toast.

BTLP seat prediction: Lab GAIN from Con

Derby North

This seat changed has hands between incumbent Amanda Solloway and Labour crank Chris Williamson several times.  Solloway is defending a marginal 2,540 majority.  There's no Williamson this time, so the Labour victor will be a new MP.

BTLP seat prediction: Lab GAIN from Con

Doncaster Central

A Labour seat since its creation in 1983, Doncaster Central is vacated by the retiring Rosie Winterton.  She clung on in 2019 with a dramatically reduced majority of 2,278 and a successful governing party would be looking to take this seat.  However, the Tories are non-starters and the main challenger will be Reform UK.  They could spring an upset here and it will be close.

BTLP seat prediction: Lab HOLD

Fareham & Waterlooville

A new seat comprising mostly of the old Fareham constituency, this was a seat that always voted Conservative.  Suella Braverman has been the MP since 2015 and would be a prized scalp for the left here.  Her majority in 2019 was an impressive 26,086 and it's probably going to be too much for either Labour or the Lib Dems to overcome.

BTLP seat prediction: Con WIN (new seat)

Great Yarmouth

An ancient constituency that has been represented by Tory Brandon Lewis since 2010.  Despite a 17,663 majority, Lewis didn't fancy his chances this time and stood down.  Reform will poll well here, but we've got this turning red.

BTLP seat prediction: Lab GAIN from Con


Before things turned bad for Boris, there was the Hartlepool by-election, which returned a Tory victor for the first time in its history.  That victory will be short-lived as this seat is reverting to red.  The Conservatives could be pushed into third by Reform here.

BTLP seat prediction: Lab GAIN from Con

Leicester East

This seat has produced some toxic MPs from Labour, namely Keith Vaz and Claudia Webbe, who are both standing as independents.  Webbe's majority in 2019 was 6,019, but the second placed Tories are no challengers here.  Labour hold all day long.

BTLP seat prediction: Lab HOLD

Louth & Horncastle

Held by the Conservatives since its creation in 1997, incumbent Victoria Adkins has a whopping majority of 28,868.  For Labour to win it would present a huge swing and they'll probably come close.  Reform will get a big vote here too, potentially creating a three-way contest.

BTLP seat prediction: Con HOLD

North West Essex

If the (not at all racist) left were to see Braverman out, they would be punching the air if they got Kemi Badenoch too.  This is a new seat formed mostly from Badenoch's Saffron Walden constituency from which she obtained an impressive 27,594 majority in 2019.  That seat had been held by a Tory since 1929.  Labour and the Lib Dems will cancel each other out here, leaving Badenoch to hold on.

BTLP seat prediction: Con WIN (new seat)

North West Leicestershire

Big pharma foe Andrew Bridgen has held this seat for the Conservatives since 2010, before which it had spent the entire Blair/Brown years with a Labour MP.  Bridgen's majority in 2019 was 20,400 and his successor will be hoping to hold for the Tories (Bridgen is standing as an independent).  Two important factors here are how many Tory voters will jump ship for Bridgen and how many Lab-Con voters will jump ship for Reform?  This could be a potential three-way tussle between the Tories, Reform and Labour.

BTLP seat prediction: Lab GAIN from Con


All the big three parties have held Rochdale at some point or another, but it was George Galloway who was victorious in the by-election earlier this year with a 5,697 majority.  He and his Workers Party of Britain have been the focus of a sustained smear campaign by Labour and their allies during this campaign and on that basis alone we hope he holds.  Labour were some way off in the by-election, but by-elections are not the same as general elections.  Still, we fancy Gaza Galloway to cling on by the skin of his teeth.

BTLP seat prediction: WPB HOLD


Ken Clarke gained this seat from Labour in 1970 and may have held it beyond 2019 were it not for his Brexit hissy fit.  His successor will be defending a 7,643 majority and is a likely casualty to the red wave.

BTLP seat prediction: Lab GAIN from Con

Skipton & Ripon

This Yorkshire seat has been blue since its creation in 1983 and the incumbent believes he can win again.  Julian Smith has a 23,694 majority over Labour, but all the talk here is about Reform.  They are debutants, but UKIP have polled very strongly in the past.  They would need to take a lot of votes off both Labour and the Tories.  Very tricky to call, but the Tories may cling on by a thread.

BTLP seat prediction: Con HOLD

South Ribble

This Lancastrian seat has been held by the Conservatives since 2010 and the incumbent fancies her chances with a 11,199 majority.  Reform will poll strongly here, but it will be Labour who enjoy the spoils.

BTLP seat prediction: Lab GAIN from Con

South West Devon

Gary Streeter was the Tory MP for this seat since 1997, but he clearly didn't fancy his chances this time round - despite a 21,430 majority.  We see this one turning red for the first time ever.

BTLP seat prediction: Lab GAIN from Con

South West Norfolk

It's a crowded ballot paper for this seat and it's little wonder.  Our short-lived premier Liz Truss is fighting on for her place on the Westminster gravy train, despite her recent embrace of actual real conservatism.  Still carrying a Tory flag, she will try and defend an otherwise healthy 26,195 majority.  It's a big swing for Labour to pull this off and the presence of Reform could be a deciding factor.  We predict a paper thin hold for Liz.

BTLP seat prediction: Con HOLD


Telford turned blue in 2015 and its MP built it from a marginal to a 10,941 majority in 2019.  Reform will poll well here and could push the Tories into third.  This seat is reverting to red.

BTLP seat prediction: Lab GAIN from Con

West Dorset

It will come as no surprise to find that this affluent-sounding seat has been blue since 1885.  Strangely, there's no Reform candidate here, which may help the incumbent fight off his Lib Dem challenger.  Chris Loder is defending a 14,106 majority, but we don't foresee success for him.

BTLP seat prediction: LDem GAIN from Con

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