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| Five of the 15 Runcorn candidates line up for a debate (l-r Chris Copeman (Grn), Paul Duffy (LDm), Sean Houlston (Con), Sarah Pochin (Ref) and Karen Shore (Lab) |
There are various layers of elections taking place on Thursday, but perhaps the one with most eyes upon it will be the Runcorn and Helsby by-election, triggered by the resignation of disgraced Labour MP Mike Amesbury. Labour will be defending a 14,696 majority going into this by-election, which in normal circumstances would be a relatively easy seat to defend, but this by-election takes place in no such circumstances.
The nature of Amesbury's departure, combined with the wretched Labour government's plummeting approval ratings, has opened up the contest to a possible upset. The bookies have Reform UK as odds on favourites, albeit their odds are drifting slightly going into election day, with Labour's odds shortening. There is clearly some late money banking on a narrow Labour hold.
William Hill election day odds
Reform UK 3/10
Labour 12/5
Tories 200/1
Independents 250/1
All other candidates 500/1
Not surprisingly, given Amesbury's violent antics, Labour have opted for a female candidate. Karen Shore is the former deputy leader of Cheshire West and Chester Council. Reform have also gone for a female, ex Tory councillor Sarah Pochin. Pochin's selection will do nothing to dissuade critics that Reform are moving in a Uniparty direction. Tory connections asides, she is a magistrate who has also worked for major multinational energy companies such as Shell. She screams 'establishment'.
As per usual for a Westminster by-election, the ballot paper will be a crowded affair, with 15 candidates having coughed up a deposit. Disaffected Labour voters will be spoiled for choice as to where to place their protest vote.
Runcorn and Helsby candidates
Catherine Blaiklock (English Democrats)
Dan Clarke (Liberal)
Chris Copeman (Green)
Paul Duffy (Liberal Democrat)
Peter Ford (Workers Party of Britain)
Howling Laud Hope (Monster Raving Loony)
Sean Houlston (Conservative)
Jason Philip Hughes (Volt)
Alan McKie (Independent)
Graham Harry Moore (English Constitution)
Paul Andrew Murphy (SDP)
Sarah Pochin (Reform UK)
Karen Shore (Labour)
John Stevens (Rejoin EU)
Michael Williams (Independent)
Reform already secured second place in last year's general election and Kemi Badenoch's somewhat uninspiring start to her Tory leadership will do Reform no harm this time. The result will come down to just how many of those 22,358 Labour voters switch parties or don't show up at all. Crucially, the size of the Labour swing to Reform will decide the outcome and we see the result being fairly tight.
Runcorn and Helsby 2024 general election
Mike Amesbury (Lab) 22,358 (52.9%) +4.1%
Jason Moorcroft (Ref) 7,662 (18.1%) +13.3%
Jade Marsden (Con) 6,756 (16.0%) -20.8%
Chris Copeman (Grn) 2,715 (6.4%) +3.5%
Chris Rowe (LDm) 2,149 (5.1%) -1.6%
Danny Clarke (Lib) 479 (1.1%) New
Paul Murphy (SDP) 116 (0.3%) New
