Sunday 19 January 2020


A third opinion poll of Labour members has thrown the leadership race into further confusion.  There's still months to go in this absurdly long process, but so far the only consensus appears to be at the bookies.  They all agree that Sir Keir is odds on for the job and YouGov's latest poll concurs.

The new poll, conducted last week, has Starmer miles in front and just 4% from an outright win in the first round.  However, this contradicts Survation's poll carried out immediately prior to YouGov's.  That poll suggested a Long-Bailey lead of 5%.  The sample size was more than three times that of either YouGov poll, so who is closer to the truth?  One thing is for sure, if Jess Phillips keeps delivering hustings performances like the one she gave in Liverpool on Saturday she won't even make it to the ballot paper.

These are the three opinion polls to date, including final round run-off findings (a run-off is averted if any candidate wins more than 50% in previous rounds).

YouGov (13-15 Jan)        Survation (8-13 Jan)        YouGov (21-31 Dec)
Sample: 1,005                Sample: 3,835                 Sample: 1,059

Starmer 46%                 Long-Bailey 42%            Starmer 36%
Long-Bailey 32%           Starmer 37%                   Long-Bailey 23%
Phillips 11%                   Phillips 9%                     Phillips 12%
Nandy 7%                       Nandy 7%                       Thornberry 7%
Thornberry 3%               Thornberry 1%                Nandy 6%

Final round run-off

Starmer 63%                Long-Bailey 51%              Starmer 61%
Long-Bailey 37%           Starmer 49%                   Long-Bailey 39%